Business Valuation Expert Invents Better Way to Research Equities
Ian Campbell, a recognized Canadian business valuation expert, manages his own stock portfolio. This would scare the heck out of me if I tried to do the same thing; but he seems to be doing just fine.
Campbell told me that it wasn't that easy in the past. He got tired of wading through financial web sites, newsletters, and other data for what seemed like unending hours each week. Being in the financial industry for more than three decades, he knew from experience the best way was to develop a solution was to tackle it himself.
Speaking of unending hours, how many did you spend last month? Were you like me, wading through the data quagmire -- that unending labyrinth of data related to the stocks you're following?
Perhaps you're one of those who like to manage your own portfolio. Maybe you're interested in the Canadian Small Cap Mining and Oil & Gas Industries; or you're a financial adviser with clients interested in these sectors. If so, you've likely experienced 'the problem' - the huge waste of your valuable time -- pouring over charts, tables, financial documents and websites, when accessing economic, industry and company data on the Internet.
Campbell commissioned proprietary survey research in both the U.S. and Canada. Among other things, it asked how much time respondents spent researching stocks on the Internet. His research pointed out that 80% of those retail investors surveyed in the U.S.A. and Canada spent up to 10 hours per month, researching stocks, bonds and other financial affairs on the Internet.
I think you'll agree it's reasonable to assume that 80% of all retail investors don't manage their own portfolios. They assist or collaborate perhaps; but mostly they rely on the expertise of an investment adviser for assistance. So why are these people online researching and investigating equities?
The answer perhaps lies in the fact that the research also asked these same respondents a few questions about how they felt regarding their own investment advisers.
The answers were illuminating to be sure! Let's just say these 80% are not taking any chances. They want to know exactly what is happening with their portfolio and how to ensure that their own Investment Advisor focuses on their financial affairs.
Campbell was sure he was on to something. He was confident that thousands of other investors must feel like him: frustrated with the way online investment research was done; and what he had to work with. He decided to conduct even more research to see if the market needed and would be willing to pay for a unique membership web site that would take the data - the material that drives most of us bananas - and properly organize it in a way that he and those other investors had not seen before.
Campbell continued and made other relevant data more easily available. Now those who wanted to manage their own portfolio, or just keep an eye on it; or who have an IA working with them, could be more organized; work faster. The IA's would also put this new 'tool' to good use.
Having been an influential corporate valuation expert for more than 35 years, he knew that if he could solve these problems, putting all this in one website, he just might have the silver bullet. The result was StockResearchDD.com, which launched recently.
One individual investor, constantly frustrated by the onerous task of wading through the deluge of stock market and individual stock data decided to do something about it. Now everyone can access this better way of researching stocks.
©Copyright, Roy MacNaughton, 2007
To learn more, go to: http://www.stockresearchdd.com Roy MacNaughton is a business writer and coach. He's a seasoned marketer, with more than 25 years of international experience, including eight years online. His specialty is finding investment "niches" that can be exploited and/or added to his own portfolio. Check his blog at: http://www.UmarketingU.com
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Roy_MacNaughton
5:06 AM | 0 Comments
Avoid Market Timing By Using DCA And DVA
Dollar cost averaging (DCA) is an investing technique intended to reduce exposure to risk associated with making a single large purchase. According to this technique, shares of stock are purchased in a specific amount on a specified periodic basis (often monthly), regardless of current performance. The theory is that this will lead to greater returns overall, since smaller numbers of shares will be bought when the cost is high, while larger number of shares will be bought while the cost is low.
An example of DCA would be as follows: If I want to buy 1,200 shares of IBM stock using DCA, then I might decide to purchase 400 shares of IBM per month over the course of the next three months. Hypothetically, during month one, the price of IBM may be $105 per share, and then it might drop to $95 per share during month two, and then rise to $100 during month three. If I bought all 1,200 shares during month one, I would have cost me $105 per share. But, by spreading the purchase over a three month period, I managed to buy IBM at an average price of $100 per share.
The primary drawback of using DCA is that you may not be maximizing your overall return. If there is an indication that a certain stock is currently undervalued and might shoot up in price, you would actually make less money using DCA than if you had bought all the shares in the beginning before the price skyrocketed. So, it is not always a winning strategy to spread your purchases over a period of time.
Value averaging, also known as dollar value averaging (DVA), is a technique of adding to an investment portfolio to provide greater return than similar methods such as dollar cost averaging and random investment. With the method, investors contribute to their portfolios in such a way that the portfolio balance increases by a set amount, regardless of market fluctuations. As a result, in periods of market declines, the investor contributes more money, while in periods of market climbs, the investor contributes less.
Here is an example of DVA: I want to invest in Yahoo using DVA. For the sake of argument, we will say that Yahoo is currently $10 per share. I determine that the value of the amount I am going to invest over the course of 1 year will rise, on average, $1,000 each quarter as I make additional investments. If I use DVA, I invest $1,000 to start.
If, at the end of the first quarter, the share price has risen to $15 per share, that means that the value of my investment is now $1,500, which means I will only have to invest $500 at the start of the second quarter in order to bring the total amount of my investment for the first and second quarter to $2,000. So, I am investing less as the stock price increases.
Dollar value averaging usually works better than cost averaging because value averaging results in less money being invested as the stock price goes up, whereas with cost averaging you continue to invest the same number of dollars regardless of the share price. But, neither of these strategies are necessarily full-proof. Make sure you know something about the company you are going to invest in before you go forward.
Jim Pretin is the owner of http://www.forms4free.com, a service that helps programmers make an HTML form
Read More......4:58 AM | 0 Comments
Initial Public Offering - Protect Yourself By Knowing The Basics Of IPO!
The key to success in an investment is to play it right: A rule familiar with every investor notable in his field. This includes primary knowledge of business, diplomacy and a meritorious demeanor.
Glancing at some of the innate tendencies of a successful investor, primarily, apart from possessing basic knowledge, he requires a businessman's insight and must be capable of drawing out appropriate programs and methods, propaganda and creating formidable allies. He must be able to handle grave situations when uncertainty arises.
In case you are faced with want for extra funds to support the increase in marketing and production, it isn't wise to turn to money lending services for credit as your returns will be used to pay off the debts leaving you at square one with neither loss nor gain. This is the stage at which an Initial Public Offering (IPO) proves effective and a good investor will be able to identify the solution.
An IPO is basically the company's first business venture with public investors involving selling the company's common shares with the idea of bringing in extra funds to support the company's growth. This method involves affiliation of investment banks as underwriters for the undertaking. The company plays the role of the issuer and will draw out a suitable scheme providing personal data involving the company's history, financial status, etc, which will be sent to the Securities and Exchange Commission for validation.
On earning the Commission's consent, the cost of these common shares are decided and are ready to be advertised among prospective buyers among the public.
The depreciation of the market does not originate around the US legislation, but during the IPO procedures. The demeanor of a successful investor is directly related to this. Business crimes have changed the face and procedures involved with IPO's and the defaulters never profit hanks to the unlawful methods they adopt to achieve success.
The following are examples of backsliding during the IPO process:
- AOL Time Warner was faced with losses during the free riding period of their IPO process causing them to introduce new ventures as compensation which differed from the signed agreement regarding the costs of the common shares.
- Enron faced more serious accusations on many of their executives involved in the IPO process for using unlawful tactics to gain profit like unrecorded alliances, bribes in exchange for international agreements and manipulation of the Texas and California energy markets. These Executives were sentenced by the court, exiled from their positions as investors. Anyone aspiring to become a notable investor must keep this in mind and play the market the way it should be instead of seeking alternative methods.
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Read More......9:18 AM | 0 Comments
Value Stock Crash Reaches 50 Percent
Perhaps this (totally ignored by the media) snippet will pique your attention: on December 18, 2007, nearly 50% of all Investment Grade Value Stocks were down an average of over 30% from their 52-week highs... the Dow and the S & P 500 had fallen just 7%!
One would think that there would be a pretty clear distinction between Value Stocks and Growth Stocks. But an hour or less research, and some non Wall Street analysis, will muddy the waters significantly. In the back of our minds, most investors think of Value Stocks as more conservative investments than Growth Stocks, mostly larger, proven, and profitable companies that are quite a bit safer than their Growth Stock brethren. Value stocks, you will determine, are those that:
* Tend to trade at a lower price relative to their fundamentals.
* Are undervalued and have a good expectation of price appreciation.
* The marketplace perceives to be undervalued based on criteria such P/E, price-to-book ratio, dividend yield, etc.
* Have been out of favor and are relatively cheap compared to the value of their assets.
* Trade at a P/E ratio lower than the market average P/E ratio as a result of falling prices rather than improving fundamentals.
Surprisingly, the distinguishing feature of Value Stocks is price. How does the price of the stock relate to its fundamentals, and if it is truly under-valued, how good are the chances for the price to go up? The definitions mention dividends, various financial statement ratios, and market sentiment. The problem is that there are no real benchmarks or specifics to cuddle up to for selection decision-making purposes. What Wall Street labels as a Value Stock is, in reality, a stock that, at a certain point in time, is selling at a bargain price... a very temporary thing. Once the stock goes up in price, the Value Stock label disappears.
Growth Stocks, on the other hand, are most often thought of as flashy startups, high tech innovators, and generally more speculative entities that should be dealt with carefully. These are the bread and butter of both Growth and Index Funds and are the kind that the media covers most extensively. The most popular definitions describe Growth Stocks as those of companies that:
* Are growing earnings and/or revenue faster than their industry or the overall market.
* Pay little or no dividend, preferring to use their income to finance expansion.
* Are young, with little or no earnings history, and which are valued on the basis of anticipated future earnings.
* Have high price-earnings ratios.
* Are currently growing earnings with potential to continue growing earnings 15% to 30% annually for the next one to three years.
Equally surprising, to me anyway, is that price is only mentioned as a part of the high P/E ratio expectation that seems consistent with the Growth Stock identity. This is because price is a tertiary consideration in this inherently speculative area, and not nearly as relevant as those quarterly analyst projections that fuel the hysteria... in both directions.
I don't disagree with the need for distinctions such as this, but I have a problem with the lack of consistency in who does the labeling, how unbiased it can possibly be, and then this one big problem: almost any stock out there can be seen as one or the other, even at the same time, by almost anyone who owns a calculator and who thinks they have the ability to predict the future. Are the real estate, home building, and financial Growth Stocks of the past three years now Value Stocks, and which of the current Value Stocks will achieve Growth Stock prominence in 2008 or 2009? Similarly problematic is the perception that a Value Stock must be safe and full of quality and the assumption that a Mutual Fund full of Growth Stocks just has to grow in... value!
Its time to refine these definitions a scooch, if for no other reason than to recognize that both are purposely flexible concepts that attempt to compare current equity prices either with past accomplishments or with future potential. Two things about publicly traded companies that most investors and speculators would probably agree upon are these: (1) High P/E, unprofitable, non-dividend paying, young companies are less likely to be around in their present form 10 years from now than profitable, dividend paying, low P/E, established companies; and (2) That the current Market Price of a security is as much or more a function of supply and demand, current events and their media spin, and world politics than it is a function of the company's financial statements. BUT, spending more time inside a company's financial statements certainly helps in identifying: stability, consistency, general quality, and long-term economic viability.
In other words, what I am looking for is a selection universe of fundamentally valuable companies that can be expected to remain that way for a significant period of time, not just a bunch of random symbols that someone believes are at garage sale prices. With a stable, fundamental-value or quality universe to select from, we can use Market Price to determine both: when a stock is available for purchase at a bargain price, and when each of our individual holdings has grown enough for us to realize a reasonable profit.
S & P Corporation publishes a standardized earnings and dividends ranking system which separates stocks with average and better fundamental qualities from those with lesser economic strength and viability. It is particularly useful because it excludes market analysis and projections of the future, thus eliminating any form of hype whatever. It sticks with pure fundamentals, financial report numbers, and ratios... market price is not an issue. As with all marketable securities, every member of this select group of approximately 450 higher fundamental quality companies will vary in Market Price in either direction dependent on all of the usual market factors... but their basic quality remains constant, regardless. I think of this group of especially successful companies as Investment Grade Value Stocks, and I look to them to produce above average growth in Working Capital annually and in Market Value cyclically. Experienced investors know better than to relate Market Price with the soundness of a company's financial statements... particularly during stock market corrections.
Four new sets of statistics are being developed for the FREE and exclusive use of true Value Investors, and they should be available on the web early in 2008:
* The Investment Grade Value Stock Index (IGVSI), which tracks the Market Value of the stocks described above.
* Issue Breadth Statistics, of the approximately 450 stocks in the IGVSI, track the daily number of advancing and declining issues.
* New High and New Low Statistics help to pinpoint cyclical developments within the Equity Universe.
* A monitor of the number of "bargain stocks" within the IGVSI helps to confirm uninvested smart cash levels in equity portfolios.
Note: The 2nd Edition of "Brainwashing" is here!
Steve Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.com
http://www.valuestockbuylistprogram.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979 Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Steve_Selengut
5:27 AM | 0 Comments
Zoning and Other Important Considerations for Commercial Investors
Zoning is the short hand term for "civic planning and development", the process by which your local municipality encourages (or discourages) patterns of growth, including residential, commercial, retail and industrial. Zoning ordinances are one of the most contentious political issues on the local level, and changes to zoning ordinances often times require campaigning that lasts for years. The reasoning for this is that the city has to represent the goodwill of everyone who lives there, and no matter how innocuous a zoning change proposal is, someone will find that it interferes with what they want to do with their parcel of land. The city will want to have an oar in the process, because land zoned for commercial, industrial or retail use generally merits a higher property tax rate (which drives most city funding) than residential or "yet to be determined" zoning.
Zoning impacts everything, and it even covers vacant lots (or, more specifically, it especially covers vacant lots). It is the primary tool for setting property tax rates, and will impact subdivision rights. Zoning will determine where road easements and utility hookups are laid out, and to what standards, and it's pretty much the blueprint the city has built for regulating its own growth. Because each city and county does its own zoning work, each one has idiosyncratic zoning regulations; don't assume that a zoning code means the same thing in each municipality. Always take the time to learn what the local zoning regulations are. As an added benefit, this gives you insight into the zoning process for the city you're in. If it's ever necessary, this will tell you how likely it is that you can get zoning regulations changed.
Beyond the zoning requirement, you also need to look at how your plot of land fits into the overall pattern of land usage. In order to develop a plot of land, you need to have legal ownership and legal access. Some plots of land are completely land locked, and different municipalities have different standards for what constitutes legal access. In more rural areas, a dirt road is enough; in others, you have to have an improved "all weather" road to maintain legal access.
You'll also want to triple check that your intended use of the land is permitted, and that the topography will work for what you intend to do with it. Is there adequate drainage, for instance? If there isn't, what directions can you landscape drainage to, and is that sort of work permitted by the land usage board? Before you break ground or move earth, check the county assessment records on the land, for what prior owners have built or had issues with, and hire an environmental expert to go over the plot carefully.
Is your plot zoned for the kinds of businesses and buildings you want to do, and are there any lingering environmental issues hanging over the plot? What sort of infrastructure hookups are available, such as sewer, water and utility connections? If you don't have a sewer hookup, can you use a septic tank? Is the land cheap because there's something that makes it unusable? These are all things to investigate before making your close offer on the parcel.
What existing structures exist there now? Are they useful to you? Will their foundations be something you can re-use if you have to tear them down, or will those have to go as well? For that matter, what kinds of structures are on neighboring plots? How are the neighboring plots zoned? These all impact what the value of the property is now, and how it'll change over time. Don't underestimate the effect of neighboring plots on the value of your real estate investment.
If you're going to be developing subdivisions as a commercial investor, look carefully into the local ordnances for them. As always, use the standard, common sense approach for making a real estate investment: Look at how much the land is worth now, decide if you're going to buy and hold, or buy and flip, and look at the long term demographic trends before you buy. For example, if you know a business is moving into that part of town, ask what kind of jobs they offer and at what pay scale, and consider investing in housing at the appropriate price points and rental levels.
Likewise, if you know a subdivision is going up, buying up the handful of plots within easy walking and driving distances zoned for retail and commercial use can quickly have those plots rise in value, because they're the logical places for people to shop, go to work, and take in leisure time activities. (This is the fundamental driver in the placement of strip malls and small movie theaters; the plots are sold in central hubs that have subdivisions and apartment housing zone around them, to become a focus for jobs, entertainment and shopping.)
All of this starts out with due diligence paid at your local city or county planning office, and finding out what plots are owned by whom, with what access, and zoned for which purposes. The city has put a lot of effort into planning it's growth, and as a commercial real estate investor, you should make the time to take advantage of it.
Anthony Seruga and Yolly Bishop of Maverick Real Estate Investments, Inc. work with builders, developers and other players in the commercial real estate industry to acquire and develop properties. They use progressive investment strategies that have proved extremely profitable. In addition to their own deals, they teach both seasoned and inexperienced investors how to be big players in the game. Visit the website for more info.
Read More......8:56 PM | 0 Comments
Tax Free Municipal Bonds -- Are They Right for You?
Tax free municipal bonds are an alternative investment for those looking to diversify their investment holdings in a tax-free manner, but they may not be right for everyone. There are several things to consider when making the decision on whether or not to invest in these. Let's take a look at some of those considerations.
First, let's take a look at just what a tax-free municipal bond, or MUNI for short, is. A MUNI is a bond issued by a city, state, or county government to finance some new taxpayer-financed project. These projects could include things like highway improvements, new schools, and new libraries. The income received from these bonds are always free from Federal income tax, and may be free from state income tax as well, provided the investor resides in the same state as the source of the bonds.
How do you know if MUNI's are right for you? The short answer is, the higher your income tax bracket, the more benefit you will receive from a tax-free bond. If you were to compare a taxable bond with a tax-free MUNI, then you would divide the tax free yield of the bond by 1 - your income tax bracket. For instance, if your MUNI is a 5% yield bond and your income tax bracket were 15%, then you would divide 5 by .85 to get an equivalent yield of 5.88%. So, an equivalent taxable bond would need to yield 5.88% to enjoy the same income benefit as the tax-free bond.
Another motivation for investing in tax free municipal bonds lies completely outside of the financial arena, and that is the desire to help support local projects. By investing in your city's projects, you can support your local economy and overall community. The income derived from the bonds can be the icing on the cake in this particular instance!
A final thing to consider when deciding on whether or not to invest in any particular tax-free MUNI is the financial solvency of the issuing entity. In general terms, financial analysts recommend that the issuing party should have the following minimum characteristics:
1. The population of the entity should be at least 10,000
2. The entity should have a diverse economy with many sources of income - No one company towns here.
3. The entity should have a long history of prompt interest payments on it's bonds.
Any bonds that fall short of these minimum criteria should, for the most part, be considered far too risky for the average investor's portfolio.
As with any investment, careful consideration and research should be done before making the final decision to invest. Tax-free municipal bonds can be a great way to earn some non-taxable income, provided you do your homework. So, are tax-free MUNI's right for you?
For lots of other investment and personal finance information, be sure to visit Personal Finances Blog today. There you will find information on everything from money merge accounts to Money Market Savings Accounts.
Read More......8:51 PM | 0 Comments
New Frontier Energy [NFEI] - An Emerging Growth Stock Story
Monday December 10 2007 John Bougearel www.successfultradingtips.com
New Frontier Energy - Summary The company is accelerating shareholder value primarily by rapidly building its proven and probable reserves, rapidly increasing production. The foundation for rapid future growth for many years to come is now in place and set to commence in 2008.
NFEI Profile NFEI is an oil and gas exploration company out of Denver with interests in three properties, 34,500 acres in the Slater Dome Field, 4,000 acres in the Flattops Prospect, and 29,000 in the Focus Ranch Federal Unit. All are located near the Colorado and Wyoming border in the Sand Wash Basin. NFEI is focusing on expanding their CBM gas production at Slater Dome. NFEI is the operator of the Slater Dome field with a 66% working interest. To date, as of November 2, 2007, there are 17 wells that have been drilled, with two more to be completed by the end of 2007. The company also owns a majority interest in an 18 mile gas gathering line that delivers gas from Slater Dome to the Questar transportation hub.
NFEI Management Management has extensive O&G experience, a successful track record cultivating institutional shareholders, and raising $28 million to fund development. Raising capital has not proved to be an obstacle for the company.
Proven Reserve Report at Slater Dome Field �" Feb 2007 1. 12 BCF �" estimated total proved reserves net to NFEI with 47 locations 2. 17 BCF �" estimated probable resources net to NFEI with 53 locations 3. 301 BCF estimated possible resources net to NFEI with 531 locations 4. 330 BCF �" total proved, probably and possible resources net to NFEI with 631 locations
Project Potential at Slater Dome Could Exceed 600+ Wells in 15 Yrs The company believes there is a large drilling inventory of 600 + wells at Slater dome over 15 years @ 15-20 wells per year. The gathering line has excess capacity already in place.
Corporate Milestones 1. Developed Slater Dome from prospect into a core producing asset with 12 BCF proven reserves to NFEI’s interest as of Feb 28, 2007 2. Constructed an 18 mile gathering line from Slater Dome Field to the Questar tap in Baggs WY in June 2005. 3. Became Operator of Slater Dome Field in 06 and doubled their working interest to 66%. 4. Achieved a 400% increase from 250,000 cubic feet per day in 2006 to over 1,000,000 or 1 mcf per day in 2007 in the Slater Dome Field’s gas production after completing the 2007 workover program in the first half of 2007. The company expects to achieve another 300% increase to 3 mcf per day in production from these existing wells when a permit granting additional compression is received in Feb 2008. 5. The 2007 drilling program includes 8 new wells, four of which will be connected to the pipeline by year end 2007. Initial production from these new wells is expected to begin in January 2008. 6. Doubled proved reserves every year since establishing production in 2005. With the eight new wells drilled in 2007, the company believes total proven reserves will double again to 24 BCF by Feb 2008.
Summary of Capital Structure 1. 9.78m shares of common stock outstanding 2. 24.92 million shares of Series B&C convertible preferred stock 3. 34.7 million shares total outstanding fully diluted after effect of preferred equity conversion. 4. Fully diluted, shareholder equity based on the recent $1.19 closing price in early November 2007 gives NFEI a $41.3 million market capitalization
NFEI’s Intrinsic Value based on the Industry’s Valuation Calculation shows its Current Stock Price around $1.20 to be significantly undervalued 1. 2007-08 24 BCF Proven Reserves in the ground at $2.50 MCF = $60 million 2. Gathering line and system $5 million 3. Acreage position = $40 million 4. Total = $105 million 5. Fully Diluted common shares before warrants $34.7 million. 6. Pro Forma Value per common share before warrants = $3.02
Other Company Facts 1. Long Term Life Expectancy of producing wells range 20-25 years 2. Current producing wells in the Slater Dome Field are producing 1 mcf per day at Slater Dome, and NFEI expects to be triple or quadruple that to 3 to 4 million cubic feet per day by February 2008 when the permit is granted for additional compression. 3. The Rockies Express 1st phase pipeline from Wamsutter WY to Mexico MO is expected to be completed in January 2008 4. The Rockies Express 2nd phase pipeline from Mexico MO to Clarington OH is expected to be completed in January 2009
Balance Sheet as of Aug 31 2007 Cash stood at $7.4 million. Total current assets stood at $9,069,857. Total Current Liabilities were $2,540,113 Total Current Assets to Total Current Liabilities = 3.56
Revenues minus Operating Expenses for Six Months Ending August 31 Total operation revenues 290,384 Total operating expenses 3.321 m Loss from operations (3.03m)
6 Months Revenues in First Six Months of FY Feb 2008 Ending Aug 31 2007 Revenues for the six months ended August 31, 2007 were $290,384 compared with $129,376 for the six months ended August 31, 2006, an increase of $161,008 or 124.45%.
Estimated Production Increases for the first six months of FY Feb 2009 NFEI is producing 1 mcf/day in the Slater Dome field from its existing 6 producing wells. Production from those six wells is expected to increase 300% or 400% to 3 mcf or 4 mcf by February 2008 when the permit for additional compression is granted according to CEO Paul Laird. Investors should recognize that this increase in production resulting from permit granting additional compression is a forward looking estimate based on assumptions that the company believes are reasonable (see company’s Nov 8 2007 powerpoint presentation.)
CEO Paul Laird suggests actual daily production figures in the first half of the new fiscal year could surprise on the upside based on the new production that will be coming online from 6 new wells derived from the 2007 drilling programs. But, since “we just don’t know†until we get the gas actually into the pipeline from the 2007 drilling program what additional production might be realized, Paul is refraining from making any forward looking production estimates resulting from the 2007 drilling program.
Extrapolating Six Month Revenue Projections for first half of the New FY Ending Feb 09 Extrapolating forward what role this increase in production resulting from the additional compression will have on revenues in the first 6 months of the new FY ending in Feb 09 can be done using a conservative estimate of the average forward price/mcf that NFEI will receive each day from the Questar Hub.
But first a little background on the lack of infrastructure that has been up until now suppressing Rocky Mountain natural gas prices and the new “Rockies Express Pipeline†(REX) coming on line in January 2008 that will allow natural gas prices recognized by nat gas producers in the Rockies to rise.
The New Rockies Express (REX) Presently there is no natural gas pipeline going further East from the Rockies beyond Cheyenne Wyoming. This lack of infrastructure has been the primary problem in the Rockies suppressing natural gas prices in 2007 well below that of the nationally recognized Henry Hub prices. Therefore, revenues recognized by Rocky Mountain natural gas producers (including NFEI) in 2007 have been adversely affected by this situation.
That all changes in January 2008, when the new Rockies Express pipeline (REX) begins delivering natural gas from Wamsutter WY East all the way to Mexico MO. The following year in 2009, the Rockies Express Pipeline (REX) will extend as far as Clarington Ohio. This event will move Rocky Mountain natural gas pricing closer to the higher Henry Hub pricing in 2008 and so NFEI expects to realize a higher price per mcf in the first half of the upcoming FY than in the previous year. Kinder Morgan, Conoco Phillops and Sempra Pipelines have all teamed up to
“build one of the largest natural gas pipelines ever constructed in North America. The 1,678-mile Rockies Express (REX) project will provide valuable infrastructure allowing producers in the Rocky Mountain region to realize full value for their commodity by giving them the ability to deliver natural gas to attractive markets in the Midwest and eastern parts of the country.
The initial 136-mile segment of the pipeline from the Meeker Hub in Rio Blanco County, Colo., to the Wamsutter Hub in Sweetwater County WY, [was] completed for service in February 2006. Construction on the 191-mile portion from Wamsutter to the Cheyenne Hub in Weld County, CO., began in July 2006 and placed in service on February 14, 2007. The 713-mile REX-West segment of the pipeline, which runs from the Cheyenne Hub to Audrain County, MO., was authorized by FERC April 19, 2007 and is projected to be in service by January 2008" �" Kinder Morgan
The REX PIPELINE
Rocky Mountain Infrastructure and Natural Gas Pricing - 2007 vs 2008
On November 2 2007, the 12 month average forward price indication on Natural Gas prices at the Questar Hub (where their company’s Slater Dome Gathering line delivers to) was $6.85 based on figures abstracted from the Questar Pricing Index.
To calculate potential revenues recognized in 2008, rather than using the 12 month forward $6.85/mcf average price for the Questar Hub, again CEO Paul Laird suggests using a more conservative $5.50/mcf to estimate forward revenues in the first half of their new FY ending Feb 2009.
Assuming the conservative production estimate of 3mcf/day is recognized at an average $5.50/mcf. 1 mcf/day at $5.50 = $5500/day x 3mcf = $16,500/day x 182 days (one half year) = $3,003,000 divided by their 53.3% net working interest in the Slater Dome field = $1,600,599. Total six month revenues in the first half of their new fiscal year could increase 550% from the first 6 month revenues in the previous fiscal year.
This potential increase in revenues to $1.6 million will go a long way towards eliminating the $3.03 million loss from operations in the first half of FY 2008 ending August 31st 2007. And, as pointed out above, revenue surprises could be to the upside from possible further increases in natural gas production. With a current market cap of $11 million priced at $1.15, NFEI’s trailing Price to Sales multiple is approximately 37 undiluted. NFEI’s estimated forward P/S multiple fully diluted is close to 10 at the current stock price.
Business Plan for Upcoming FY ending Feb 2009 NFEI’s plan of operations for the twelve months call for them to drill up to 4 more wells at Slater Dome Field and to drill two wells at the Flattops Prospect in the summer/fall of 2008.
NFEI also plans to test the Niobrara and Frontier formations in the Focus Ranch Federal 12-1 well in the Unit. Also, they intend to acquire acreage in the Denver Julesberg Basin and attempt to obtain a promoted or carried working interest as well as a prospect fee. Additionally, they plan to evaluate opportunities to acquire interests in other oil and gas properties.
NFEI believes that the plan of operations for the next twelve months will require capital of approximately $2,000,000. To the extent that additional opportunities present themselves to the Company, the Company may require additional sources of capital to participate in these opportunities. We expect that working capital requirements will be funded through a combination of our existing funds, cash flow from operations and issuance of equity and debt securities. Liquidity and Capital Resources NFEI’s working capital requirements are expected to increase in line with the growth of the business. The company believes their capital requirements will continue to be met with additional issuance of equity or debt securities as well as traditional bank financing
Advantages Investors Seek in Unconventional Resource Plays 1. Repeatable low risk development drilling 2. Low development costs - $0.29 to $.60/MCF 3. High probability of success = 95% 4. Long term productive wells 20 - 25 years 5. Predictable annual production & reserve growth 6. Field size typically grows over time - 10’s Bcf to Tcf’s
Technical Outlook
Technical Outlook on Stock Price
* bearish price trend since peaking at $3.25 in Sept 05 * Bearish price momentum indicator bottomed in October 2006 * Price momentum indicator almost turned bullish a year later in October 2007 * Volume accumulation indicator turned positive since June 2007
Technical Summary Bearish price momentum bottomed in October 2006. Price bottomed 4 months later in Feb 2007. Since Feb 2007, price has been range bound and compressed. Price compression will at some point lead to a price breakout. Volume precedes price and is a leading indicator. Volume characteristics turned positive in 2H 2007. Presumably price will turn positive in 1H 2008.
Forward looking statements pertaining to revenue projections for the first six months of the new fiscal year ending August 31 2008 are my own and not that of the company. Those projections are based solely on the new infrastructure that REX will provide natural gas producers in the Rockies and on the permit granting additional compression for the existing producing wells. Other contributing factors may cause actual revenues to fall short of or exceed this projection.
Follow up reports on this company will be done when the Feb 2008 Reserves Statement is released in March and again after the 10-Q reports for the three months ending May 31 2008 and six months ending August 31st 2008 are filed in July and October respectively.
I own shares in this company.
Sources:
CEO Paul Laird
10-Q Filing October 9 2007
http://nfeinc.com/pdf/NFEI_inv_presentation11-08-07.pdf
http://www.kindermorgan.com/business/gas_pipelines/rockies_express/
I am Director of Futures and Equity Research at Structural Logic with over 12 years of experience across a broad array of financial and securities markets.
I consult with and provide research for hedge funds, wealth management firms, brokerages, and banks on the US and global equity indexes, individual equities, US Treasuries and global fixed income markets, as well as the energy, precious metals, and grain markets.
Customized research reports
Read More......8:14 AM | 0 Comments
Income Investors Should Take Action
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates again yesterday and will be likely to do so again in six weeks. Yields on 5-year Certificates of Deposit are down to around 4.25% and falling. On top of that, the mortgage meltdown has hindered the performance of the entire stock market. If you are retired and need your investments to generate income you don't have to settle for these paltry rates and dismal returns. Read on to learn how you can get rates that are double that!
I have written several articles on various types of investments that can generate a dependable income stream that is far higher than that paid by certificates of deposit. I've talked about income deposit securities, closed-end funds, regional telephone companies and Canadian income trusts in previous articles (you can find them at www.guardingyourwealth.com). Keep in mind that these types of investments aren't guaranteed by the government and their share value will fluctuate from day to day.
Closed-end funds make attractive income-oriented investments. Think of a closed-end fund as a pool of underlying investments. Those underlying investments can be U.S. corporate bonds, foreign bonds or even stocks. Something unique to closed-end funds is that they don't always trade at the same price as the underlying value of what they own.
For instance, a closed-end bond fund may own a pool of bonds that, if sold that day, would be worth $10 per share. Those shares don't always trade at $10. They can trade above or below that price at a premium or a discount to the fair market value of what it owns. Currently, high-quality closed-end funds that previously were trading at a premium are now trading at a discount. Some have discounts of 10% or more.
One reason why I particularly find select closed-end funds attractive is because the share price has been declining much faster than the value of the underlying securities. To me, this is an indication that the decline is a result of investor panic, not the underlying fundamentals of the fund. The yields on attractive closed-end funds have increased 2-3% with many yielding in the 9-10% range.
I also like the stocks of select regional telephone companies. Studies have been done that show how stocks paying dividends tend to out-perform those that don't over longer periods of time. That's because companies that pay dividends tend to be older and are in industries where their cash flow is more dependable.
These telephone companies have a steady, stable and growing cash flow. Think about it. Every month you pay your phone and cable bill. Things would have to get pretty bad before people allow their phone and cable to be shut off. Recent market fears have even caused the price of these stalwarts to decline. That means you can now get yields close to 10%--or even higher.
Canadian Trusts are popular among those seeking higher dividend yields. These investments are out of favor due to changes in Canadian tax laws. Those laws don't take effect until 2011 though, and even then will only have a limited impact on certain trusts. Yet the share prices of all of the trusts have declined as much as those trusts that are adversely affected. That means that high quality trusts with healthy and growing underlying businesses are paying unbelievable yields.
A company that prints telephone directories is now yielding over 7.5% and has already increased their dividend this year. There are trusts in the oil and gas sector that have shown they can weather the stress of low natural gas prices. Some are paying over 10%--some even 15%---and still they are only paying out 70-80% of the money they have available for dividends.
The key with all investments like these is to own several of them to reduce your risk. The prices will fluctuate. The prospects of individual companies can change. That's why I use groups of these in my clients, portfolios. For instance, my growth stock portfolio may utilize 10-15 different positions like those mentioned here.
So while everyone else is in a panic and rushing for the exits, I am using this opportunity to pick up investments that will give my clients a steady and growing source of income for years to come.
Nationally-syndicated financial columnist and Certified Financial Planner(R) Jeffrey Voudrie provides personal, in-depth money management services and advice to select private clients throughout the USA. He'll answer your financial question FREE at www.guardingyourwealth.com.
Read More......8:11 AM | 0 Comments
How to Find Good Stocks That Will Survive 2008 Market Crash
Earnings per Employee
You can calculate the staff productivity by dividing the total earnings by the number of staffs. As different industries have different ratios, you should compare staffs' ability to bring value to the company in the same field. Compare yourself a bank with $12k profits per staff with another bank of $98k profits per staff, I bet you can notice the difference.
Good employees maintain the business operation, but great workers will sustain the business growth. And in stock investing, earnings growth does matter, especially during recession. Though times never last, but tough people do.
Return on Asset
ROA can be calculated by dividing the net profits by the number of assets that the company owns. It indicates how efficient the management is in turning the assets into profits. Compare with other stocks on how they do is something you should consider. Lower ROA can be attributed to not having enough expertise to manage the assets or not having the right assets in the first place.
During stock market crash, companies with the lowest return on asset (ROA) are prone to be acquired by stronger companies. Unfortunately, not all low ROA stocks hold the value they want in the eye of larger companies. Therefore, better avoid this type of stocks.
Liquidity Ratio
Liquidity ratio measures if the stock is able to meet the short term obligations. It can be calculated as current or quick ratio. Either way, it is about the liquid asset over its current liabilities. This ratio is critical during recession as the interest rate will increase substantially that time. Although Federal Reserve maintains the interest rate recently, there is no guarantee it will be the same in 2008.
Recently, I noticed some good companies holding substantial liquid assets like never before. This indicates the stocks are preparing themselves of any possibilities of higher interest rates next year, or having enough cash to buy profitable asset at cheaper price in 2008.
Either there is market crash, recession or economic depression in 2008, make sure you get ready yourself. Market crash can be bad to some, but offer great opportunities to smart investors. So, make sure you are one of them.
Zainul Anuar is the founder and CEO of Stock Investment Made Easy, a step-by-step stock investing for beginners website. Find out how to pick good stock for 2008 stock market crash at http://www.Stock-Investment-Made-Easy.com/easy-stock-tips.html
Read More......8:02 AM | 0 Comments
Geothermal Stocks
Geothermal , unlike wind, solar, and biofuels, rarely gets a piece of the limelight. And that's something I've not been able to figure out.
After all, it's an emission-free power source that's not affected by the shifting availability of sunshine and wind. That means geothermal is capable of being a base load power source, like coal- and natural gas-fired plants.
And as such, it's become price competitive with traditional sources of power in many areas, including the Southwestern US.
It's for all those reasons that we've been extremely bullish on geothermal stocks from the outset, boasting three geothermal plays in the current Green Chip portfolio.
Geothermal Stocks and Steam-Powered Profits
With oil having touched $92.22, renewable energy sources are looking increasingly promising. But even when oil was relatively cheap these geothermal stocks were still making their rise.
Now, with oil on the verge of $100, these plays are only going to go higher. Let's have a look.
Green Chip got in on Ormat Technologies (NYSE: ORA) all the way back in January 2005, shortly after the IPO. below...
We got in at $16.28 a share, and our readers are now sitting on gains of over 200%.
And, of course, you all know about US Geothermal (OTCBB: UGTH), one of the true darlings of the Green Chip portfolio. We alerted our readers to get into this stock back in July 2006, when the price stood at a mere $.80.
Why are Early Investors Flocking to This Spot?
A region in Minnesota holds the largest precious and base metals formation in the entire world. This represents the biggest mining investment opportunity of this decade. Go here to find out more information on the two tiny North American companies that plan on extracting these metals.
Find out how to seize this great investment opportunity
Now, with the stock holding in the high threes, Green Chip subscribers have attained gains of over 380%!
Plus, with coverage recently initiated on this stock by Pacific Growth Equities, we're confident US Geothermal will continue its climb.
We've also seen good gains from Raser Technologies (NYSE: RZ). Although this company was late to the geothermal game, our readers have seen a 90% increase in this stock over the past twelve months.
Just this week, the company announced plans to begin drilling a geothermal production well in central Utah's Escalante Desert for use in another 10 MW binary-cycle geothermal power plant. It will be the first geothermal power facility built in Utah in over 15 years, and should serve not only for electricity generation, but to power the stock higher as well.
Another geothermal stock we're looking at is Nevada Geothermal (OTCBB: NGLPF). While it's not in the Green Chip portfolio, it has been featured for gains in our Alternative Energy Trader.
The company has been announcing great performance test from their properties and estimates it can produce up to 200 megawatts of power from the land it currently holds. The Street has been responding positively to this company lately, and at such a low price, this stock certainly has plenty of room to grow.
Geothermal Stocks Haven't Played Out, So Don't Fret Just Yet
You may have seen quite a few geothermal plays that have already made significant gains. But don't worry, there are still plenty to come.
As the world continues to exploit all possible alternative options to produce power, geothermal will certainly emerge as one of the clear winners. And as long as there are profits to be made, Green Chip will continue recommending winning geothermal stocks to its readers.
In fact, we have our eyes on a few up-and-coming geothermal companies right now.
Be sure not to miss the next round of geothermal stock gains. As you've just seen, the three geothermal companies in our portfolio have already netted gains of 200%, 380%, and 90%, respectively.
Until next time, Nick
http://www.greenchipstocks.com/articles/geothermal-stocks-investing/168
From water treatment to water conservation technology - Nick Hodge covers the alternative and renewable energy markets for www.GreenChipStocks.com.
Read More......6:25 AM | 0 Comments
Dow Directions
DIA (Dow ETF): Fed Firestorm! Here comes da cut, here comes da cut!
The Dow closed up over +100 points on Monday. After plowing through the 50% retracement level, then pausing on Friday to catch its breath, the market surged once again. In fact, the StoRSI, our momentum oscillator, has now moved back over its trigger level and has stayed there for the past three sessions. Strong markets can float a momentum oscillator, above the normal trigger, for extended periods of time.
The direction of the T8, our exponential moving average and trend definer, continues to point up…with an attitude. The trend was down for 30 trading days, prior to the last two weeks. Rallies back to the T8 are opportunities to BUY the market. Remember, as the market starts to climb: the steeper the angle of the T8, the further this market can rally. This is a market in its early bull stages. Take advantage of the first retracement to the T8. I hate to repeat myself, but the above paragraph is worth reminding us these very important reminders.
Monday’s big strong white candle is a sign of a strong market in a strong uptrend. What we must be monitoring for is a significant candle that has a high probability of stopping direction. As soon as I see that candle, I will issue the caution in a loud announcement.
***Volatility Alert: During the third week in July, volatility returned to the major stock indices. For approximately four years, the markets have had low to very low volatility. This significant change has ushered in swings of 100, 200 & 300+ points, sometimes on a day-to-day basis. Stock indices tend to be either volatile, or not, for three to five years at a time. Expect continued volatility. This volatility cycle is in its early stages and we continue to believe it is here to stay.
Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.
Uncle Steve is a respected technician and Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA). He started his trading career with Merrill Lynch in 1975. That same year, Steve began system trading using moving average oscillators. Steve has designed numerous trading systems and market indicators. From 1997-2001, Steve frequently guest lectured at the University of Idaho, Washington State University and the University Centre, in Brig, Switzerland.
Read More......6:19 AM | 0 Comments
Options Seller Risk/Reward
The seller of a time spread buys the nearer month option and sells the outer-month option in a one to one ratio.
In order to profit from the sale of the time spread, the seller is looking basically for two things.
First is a decrease in implied volatility. As volatility decreases, the out-month option (which the seller is short) loses money faster than the near month option (which the seller is long) because of the higher vega in the out month option. This will cause the spread to contract or lose value. That will be profitable for the time spread seller.
Second, the stock can move. As stated before, a time spread is at its widest, most expensive point when it is at-the-money. A movement away from the strike in either direction decreases the value of the spread. So, as long as the stock moves in either direction away from the strike, the seller's position could be profitable provided that time decay does not outperform the stock movement.
Time, unfortunately, never works in favor of the time-spread seller. The passage of time hurts the seller because the nearer month option (which the seller is long) naturally decays at a faster rate than does the out-month option (which the seller is short). These differing decay rates cause the spread to expand and increase in value. That obviously produces a loss for the time spread seller. Time can neither be stopped nor turned back. It only moves forward which always hurts the time spread seller.
Increases in implied volatility are also detrimental to the potential profits of the time- spread seller. When implied volatility increases, the out month option (which the seller is short) increases in value faster than the near month option (which the seller is long) due to the out month option's higher vega. This creates an expansion in the spread and increases its value resulting in a negative for the spread seller.
The seller, in theory, has an unlimited loss potential. For the seller, the maximum loss potential is not so much determined by the stock price movement but by the movement in implied volatility. As the seller, you will be long the front month call and short the out- month call. As we know, the out month call will be more sensitive to movements in implied volatility due to a higher vega or volatility sensitivity component. If implied volatility increases then the seller's short, out month option will increase more in value than will the seller's long, front month option. This will cause the spread to widen or increase in value; that is negative for the seller.
The second risk is that the option the seller is long is going to expire approximately 30 days prior to the option the seller is short. If volatility does not decrease or the stock does not move away from the strike significantly before the seller's long option expires, he/she will be left short a naked or un-hedged option and a loss on the position. If the seller can wait out the position, the lost extrinsic value of the short option can be recaptured. As we know, this option too has a limited life and must shed its extrinsic value, no matter how much, by its expiration. The problem facing the seller is that the position is no longer hedged and the seller now faces unlimited risk.
Once the long option expires and the seller is left short a now naked call, stock price movement in the wrong direction is a substantial risk and under the circumstances described above, a big problem. While the seller can wait out an implied volatility movement that created an increase in extrinsic value, they probably will not be able to wait out a large, negative stock movement creating an increase in intrinsic value. In that case the seller must take action to prevent substantial losses once the front month expires. Attention to the implied volatility in the farther out option when the nearer month option expires can save the seller from a large loss.
Ron Ianieri is currently Chief Options Strategist at The Options University, an educational company that teaches investors how to make consistent profits using options while limiting risk. For more information please contact The Options University at http://www.optionsuniversity.com or 866-561-8227
5:44 AM | 0 Comments
Wall Street Rallied Once Again
Wall Street resumed its rally this week after new data showed the overall economy is holding up, but isn't so strong as to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates says Betonmarket's Michael Wright. The Dow Jones industrial average saw an increase of nearly 200 points on Wednesday.
Stocks turned around following two sessions of losses, after a report showed hiring in the U.S. private sector expanded at a faster pace in November. ADP Employer Services said 189,000 jobs were added during the month, an increase that bodes well for consumer spending.
Investors were also encouraged on Wednesday, after the department reported worker productivity advanced by an annual rate of 6.3 percent in the summer, the fastest pace in four years, while wage pressures eased.
Still, there is enough uncertainty in the economy to bolster the argument for lower rates. The financial sector is still struggling from months of credit problems, and the Institute for Supply Management reported on Wednesday, that service sector growth slowed in November.
Some investors are betting the Fed will go beyond the generally anticipated quarter percentage point cut, and lower rates by a half point. A mere quarter-point cut could bring some disappointment to Wall Street, but as long as the Fed reiterates an openness to lowering rates further in its accompanying economic assessment, the market could still move higher. The MPC led the way last week with a quarter point cut.
The market is currently pricing in a rate cut next week. Supporting the case for a cut is the fact that central banks globally seem to be open to the idea, a trend that would give the Fed even more room to move.
Investors also weighed a Commerce Department report that showed factory orders unexpectedly rose in October. However, that data was likely to be offset by the report from the Institute for Supply Management, showing growth in the service sector cooled somewhat in November.
All of this is positive news for both the SP500 and the US dollar, however it seems like the best value on trading is found in the longer term SP500 'no touch' options. These options compensate traders for correctly guessing a level, which isn't touched by the market during the duration of the trade.
After checking Betonmarkets.com the best value comes with a 'no touch' on the SP500 for 25 days using a no touch level 130 points below the current price.
This option pays 6% ROI. This means the S&P 500 can go up, stay where it is, or drop slightly and you still win.
- THE END -
Contact Details:
Name: Mike Wright
Tel: 448003762737
Email: editor@my.regentmarkets.com
Url: Betonmarkets.com & Betonmarkets.co.uk
Address:
Regent Markets (IOM) Limited
3rd Floor, 1-5 Church Street
Douglas, Isle of Man
IM1 2AG
Regent Markets is the world's leading fixed odds financial trading group. Through its main multi-award winning websites, BetOnMarkets.com and BetOnMarkets.co.uk, it has established itself as the leading global provider of a unique, powerful way to trade the world's major financial markets. The number, length and variety of trades available to our clients exists nowhere else in the world.
5:34 AM | 0 Comments
What Is Return On Investment (ROI)?
Return on investment is a performance measure that can be used to compare several investments. ROI is calculated as net income of an investment divided by the cost of the investment.
ROI = Net income / Investment cost
where
Net Income = Income from the investment - Investment cost
ROI is usually noted as percentage, meaning that 10% of gives us 10 cents per each dollar of investment. If you would like to have ROI as percentage then you should calculate it as:
ROI = (Net income / Investment cost ) x 100.
For example if Net income is 1,200$ and Investment cost is 10,000$, then ROI is 1,200/10,000 = 0.12 or stated as percentage ROI is 12%.
If ROI is negative then the investment should not be considered because the investment is a loss. If ROI is positive then investment is profitable. Higher ROI is better than lower ROI. A project with the highest ROI will have the highest profit rate.
Other measures than money can be used to measure the cost and the income. That is the reason that ROI is very flexible and can be manipulated. Therefore, it is necessary to know how the ROI is calculated, i.e. what are the costs and what are the income? For example, the Accounting ROI is equal to the net income divided by the total assets. ROI works just fine if income and outcome can be easily identified.
ROI can be also used with not so precise definition of income and outcome. One could consider customer satisfaction, accuracy, average shopping chart or something else. For example one could calculate ROI for Customer satisfaction (where CS is short for Customer Satisfaction) like this:
ROI = Change in customer satisfaction / Investment cost
where
Change in customer satisfaction = CS after investment - CS before investment.
What should you do with ROI? First of all, if you have only one investment ROI could only show if your investment is profitable (ROI > 0). If you have several investments and you consider terminating one, probably you should terminate the one with the smallest ROI. Also, if you have several investment opportunities, you should choose the one with the highest ROI. Of course you should consider other factors involved, such as risk, necessary minimum amount for investing, your portfolio...
Zoran is a freelance author focused on investing basics. You can read and subscribe to his blog at http://gtdinvest.blogspot.com
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Zoran_Maksimovic
6:14 AM | 0 Comments
Powerful Investment Strategies for 2008
Maverick Investors are always planning ahead, looking out for the next big opportunities coming down the pipe. The turn of the year is a particularly powerful time to take stock, and start making decisions about the direction to take in the New Year.
There's a phrase that I think about often, and particularly at this time of year -
"If you keep on doing what you're doing, then you'll keep on getting what you're getting"
This serves as a powerful reminder - if you don't like what you're getting, the only way you'll change that is by changing what you're doing! It seems obvious, but look around you, and see how many people clearly never think about this simple truth.
So, what powerful strategies do you, as a Maverick Investor, have to hand for 2008? Here, in no particular order, are my current Top Six. To make sure all tastes are covered, there are two from the property investment world, two from the online business world, and two from the stock markets.
These are just introductions to the concepts. In later articles, I'll go into each one in a lot more depth.
BMV Property Investing
BMV stands for Below Market Value. There is a niche in the property investing game in which investors never pay full market price for a house or apartment.
Now, there are lots of reasons why properties are made available for below market value prices, and there are many methods of tracking these bargain properties down. By far the richest source, though, is the motivated seller.
A motivated seller is one who is in some sort of difficulty, and needs to off-load their property quickly. They may be struggling with debt. They may be facing repossession or foreclosure (depending on which side of the Atlantic they're on!). They may be recently bereaved. You get the picture.
You can genuinely help these people by buying their properties at a significant discount and, at the same time, digging them out of whichever hole they find themselves in. It can be a very satisfying way to make a living in property.
Lease Options
Once you own a property, and assuming you want to keep it, rather than sell it on, then you need to make money from it, and you'd typically do this by renting it out to a tenant. The rent covers the mortgage, with perhaps a bit left over for repairs and so on, but it's rare, at least in the UK, for a landlord to make any significant monthly cashflow.
A solution to this is to utilise lease options, a technique also known as rent-to-buy, or rent-to-own.
Basically, you give your tenants the option to buy the property from you within a set time. In return, they pay you a deposit of 3% - 5% of the value of the property when they move in, plus they pay about 20% on top of the rent every month.
Your cashflow thereby goes from virtually non-existent to pretty amazing! Plus, you have tenants who pay on time and love you for helping them out! A true win-win!
Network Marketing
In the online business world, little is more powerful than network marketing.
Yes, it did get something of a bad name in the 80s and 90s. Huge network marketing companies like Amway have fantastic products, but you were always encouraged to make a long list of all your friends and family, and then go out and sell to them. Which is a very swift way of losing friends and family!
The Internet makes it possible - easy, even - to connect with many, many more people a lot faster (and we're NOT talking about spam here!). If you're offering a great product and tons of value, the power of the network does all the hard work for you.
Affiliate Marketing
So you want an online business, but you don't have a product to offer? Not a problem!
All you need to do is track down products offered by others - good products, of course, and preferably ones you use yourself - and become an affiliate. All this means is that you become a seller for the product owner and earn a commission on every sale.
Many online sales to your network of one good product can produce a very good passive income stream. Many sales on several good products can be even better.
If you want to start investigating this one right away, go and explore www.clickbank.com
Volatility Trading
The biggest myth in stock market trading is that some people can predict the direction of a market, or of an individual stock, with consistent accuracy.
That's not true!
How would you like to discover a way to trade which allows you to make regular and significant amounts of tax-free profits on large stock moves - regardless of whether that move is up or down?
This is perfectly feasible with volatility trading, and we'll tell you more in a future article.
Covered Calls
Did you know you can rent your shares out, in a very similar way to renting real estate?
Call options are a speculators dream, but they can be quite risky. However, if you are the option writer or seller, then what you're doing is selling options to the speculators, and effectively collecting from them a monthly rent for the shares you own.
This is a very low-risk activity that returns almost unbelievable yields. You can comfortably expect in the region of 3% to 6% a month using these strategies - and better yet, it will take you about 1-3 hours a month to run.
So, if you have $100,000 stock portfolio, or $100,000 to invest, this one strategy alone could bring you $3-6,000 a month - and your $100,000 will stay intact! Did your 'financial freedom figure' just go down a few notches?
Whether you're interested in stocks, real estate or online business, now is the time to decide which direction your wealth-creation activities will take now.
The next six articles in this series will cover each of the above strategies in depth. In the meantime, feel free to check out the resources available to you at www.maverick-investor.com
About the AuthorRob Best is a Maverick Investor of some 25 years, specialising in property (real estate) and stock options.
His mission is to combine his passions for writing and Maverick Investing to bring powerful below-the-radar investment techniques to all those who seek true financial freedom. Read More......
6:05 AM | 0 Comments
How Important is Stock Broker?
by George Kissi
How Important is Stock Broker?
Depending on the the style of investing that you expect be active in, you almost unwaveringly might have to enlist the services of a broker to take trouble of your investments Brokers are as per usual employed by brokerage firms and are well-suited to go fetch or sell stocks in stock exchanges. The dispute offten arises if one doubtlessly needs a broker especially since you pretty much bring to fruition your own buy and sell activities online. The assertion is an fervent yes! If you mean to trade stocks on the stock exchanges, you have got to have a broker. Your online trading ought to be routed through a clearing house through a brokerage firm.
Stockbrokers are dictated to pass two differing tests in order to obtain their license. These tests are very uncompromising, and most brokers have a precinct in business or finance, with a Bachelors or Masters Degree. They act as a mediator between buyers and sellers of a stock security.
It is straight expedient to reckon the circumfusion between a broker and a stock market analyst. An analyst basically analyzes the stock market, and makes some predictions about how the stock market will act out with regards to certain economic factors, or how specific stocks will carry into execution. A stock broker is only there to follow your instructions to either purchase or sell stocks.
Brokers reap their fortune from commissions on sales in most cases. When you inculcate your broker to purchase or sell a stock, they score a set percentage of the labor. Plentiful brokers charge a bloated ‘per action’ fee. Others charge you a fee based on your account size or account activity. The influential thing to put in mind is that as soon as your trade executes the broker gets paid his/her commission regardless of the outcome of your trade!
The two differentiated types of of brokers at liberty are Full service brokers and discount brokers. The former can generally deal out may more kinds of investments and financial/investment advice and is by and large paid in commissions. Discount brokers however conventionally do not deal out any advice and do nor research into any investments on your behalf. They just guise upon your intructions to procure or sell stocks and nothing more.
All things considered, the first-class decision you need to make as far as brokers is whether you prefer a full service broker or a discount broker. If you are fashionable to investing/trading, you may need to go with a full service broker to make certain that you are making a sound investments decision. They can also deal out you the skill that you lack at this point. Nonetheless, if you are already perceptive about the stock market, all you definitely need is a discount broker to swing your trades.
No matter what level of investing or trading you are at it is pivotal that you attain the intellect, mental capacity, and tools you need to be crowned with success. There are several free of charge online forums and disposable resources like my blog http://www.GeorgeKissi.com and the like that will facilitate both the beginer investor as well as the full-fledged investor.
George Kissi
About the Author
Find out more tips and strategies about how To be a successful Day Trader/investor for FREE at my blog: http://www.GeorgeKissi.com
Read More......6:47 PM | 0 Comments
Moving Averages - Using Them Correctly For Bigger Profits
by kelly price
Moving averages are a great trading tool to use in any financial market and that includes forex. Being involved in forex education for 25 years, I would say that most traders simply don't use this tool correctly - but if you do, they can enhance your forex trading success.
Moving averages (regardless of the time period used) all have the same objective:
They identify trends over specific durations and they smooth out the day-to-day price fluctuations, that are a caused by short term volatility.
This help you see the longer term trend and look for entry points for your trading signal. The equation for any moving average is:
The closing price is added up and divided by the period the moving average is covers.
Periods
200 Day moving averages are popular for tracking longer term trends and 20, 40 and 60 Day moving averages for tracking the intermediate trend.
Shorter Periods are used and many forex traders will calculate moving averages within a day in hourly or minute time frames.
Moving averages are one of the simplest and most popular used by traders interested in technical analysis. The problem most traders have is using them the right way and they normally one or all, of these common errors.
Buy On Dip to the Moving Average
They see it approach the level and simply buy - well that is not going to help them make money as they are predicting (another word is hoping) the level will hold and of course in many instances it does not. You have to combine moving averages with moving averages - to prove the level will hold on your forex chart before entering.
To do this use simple momentum oscillators like RSI and stochastic and wait for them to show the level has held and then execute your trading signal.
Moving averages give you areas of value; that's all and your forex trading system needs to prove these levels hold.
Using Them in Stupid Time Frames
With any indicator you use you have to have valid data and many forex traders trade time periods that are simply to short - stand up all forex day traders.
Moving averages, are of absolutely no use in time frames of under a day.
They don't really become useful until at least 10 days and we never use anything less than 20 days.
Another Great Use.
For moving averages is as a stop in long term trend following.
The 20 day average we use to spot normal corrections in a trend and buy dips but we exit on the 40 day moving average.
They are great for this.
Sure you miss the top but you get something more ,you stay out of the way of the random volatility and they can help you ride a big trend for months.
If you do this and keep in mind if you get 50% of every major trend you will be very rich!
Use them the right way
It's a fact that short term price spikes that move to far away from the longer term moving average will return to it, as they are the product of human emotion.
They are therefore a great tool for spotting value areas in the market on your forex charts. Use them with simple trend lines to isolate value areas and then use momentum oscillators to prove the level has held - then execute your trading signal.
Moving averages are a simple tool - but don't under estimate how powerful they can be in helping you enjoy currency trading success just remember - use them the right way.
About Author
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Here Is A Quick Way To Select Successful Mutual Funds
by Tony Clifton
Many investors look only at the track record when choosing a mutual fund. This is a big mistake. The warning that all investment companies give - "past results are not guarantee for further profits" - is there for a reason. Past performance is only one factor that you should consider when selecting a mutual fund.
If you want to pick a really successful fund, you should evaluate a combination of several criterias.
Here is a quick suggestion:
1. Past results. Of course! It's not the only factor, but remains one of the most important factors. The higher the average yearly results are, the better - if you are ready to accept the higher risks.
2. Longivity. Since how long is this mutual fund in the market? You may think the longer is the better. Generally yes, because it means lower risk. But if you are looking for more aggressive opportunities, consider investing in younger mutual funds.
3. Size. The companies who manage large investment amounts are less liquid. Such funds are usually safer, but can't offer too high returns. In case of market crash, such funds are unable to cash out fast enough because of the size of their positions. Generally I prefer smaller funds, because they give more opportunities.
4. Company reputation. What do websites, magazines, newsletters and independent advisors say about the company offering the fund? If most people are happy or unhappy, they probably have good reasons for that.
5. Market segment. Is the fund investing in regions with emergning ecomony? If it is specialized in certain industry, what's the future of that industry? Mutual funds are long term investment - so thing long term when evaluating them.
There are hundreds of factors one should consider when picking a mutual fund. That's why there are so many companies who provide mutual funds evaluation and even charge for that. But in most cases, considering the five factors listed above can help you enough to achieve good results.
About the Author
Of course, it's better to know more about mutual funds investing, about the types of funds and even how to beat the mutual funds. Visit and explore http://www.mutual-funds-investing.info/ for more details.
6:40 PM | 0 Comments
Your Neighborhood Market - The Stock Market
THE STOCK MARKET
The stock market is a huge market. That's what it is, just a huge market where stocks (pieces of paper which represents portions of a company which may be traded as transferable certificates) are exchanged (bought or sold) with money as the bottom line exchange factor, just like in any grocery store on Main St. USA. Stocks are sold and bought in lots (100 stocks, 1000 stocks, etc...) or separately by stock.
The price of stocks is determined by Supply and Demand. This is the interplay of the quantity of products or goods offered for sale at certain price and the quantity of products or goods purchased or bought at those prices in a free market. This is a very important point, because it relates to everything you do when buying or selling. Think about selling your house now in this market... OK. Now, think about buying milk at the grocery market. It's the same market but at a different level.
Did you ever wonder why dairy products are very reasonable one week and then two weeks later the price is doubled?! This is supply and demand at work. The demand for certain product goes up, and then the price goes up. This is just like the stock market. Depending upon how good a company is producing, as in good products, showing good customer service, selling a great marketing program, the company may have a large demand and this means the price of stock will go up. If the company is favored in news releases, this will also tend to increase stock prices. This also works in the negative direction as well, where the company produces inferior products and has bad news releases about it.
Stock trading is easier than ever now with online companies like Scottrade, optionsXpress, schwab, etc. Trades are fast, commissions are low, training and advanced tools are at your fingertips.
EXCHANGES
Stocks are listed and traded at several organized exchanges in the United States, which make up the stock market. To be "listed" the company must meet certain criteria such as number of employees, size of company, how much profit the company makes, etc... Stocks and other securities (bonds, commodities, options...) are traded at exchanges with a physical location or on a computerized system. The reason exchanges were created was to provide a safe and fair platform where there were established rules and procedures to trade stocks and securities.
In the United States the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulates the exchanges and ensures the rules and procedures are kept fair for all. There are four exchanges in the United States for trading stocks. They are:
* The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) * Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE) * The American Stock Exchange (AMEX) * The National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotes (NASDAQ)
Some of the exchanges are fully automated systems which electronically match buyers to sellers of stock. You must have a buyer of stock for every seller of stock in the market. Other exchanges are what are called "Open Outcry" auction systems. If you have ever watched stock market movies such as "Trading Places" or "Wall Street", you'll know what this looks like.
This huge market has, to some degree, an effect upon everyone whether you understand or not. If you are a fund market manager or a school teacher, you're affected by prices and commodities of the market. You both may drink orange juice and buy gasoline for your cars. You both may invest in company stock, commodities, mutual funds or securities of one way or the other. The point is that everyone invests. What you buy or what you sell someway relates back to the markets. This is YOUR market as well and your neighbor's.
Your investment into your knowledge of the markets will benefit you whether it's the relationship in stocks, commodities, mutual funds or saving accounts. The more you invest in you own knowledge, the better prepared you will be.About Author
J Nelson has been investing for over 15 years with the viewpoint of having fun with investing, not slaving over it. Finding solutions to financial investing can be an astronomical job, but there ARE solutions out there. Find out more at: http://stockinvestingreview.blogspot.com/ Read More......
6:37 PM | 0 Comments