Options Seller Risk/Reward
The seller of a time spread buys the nearer month option and sells the outer-month option in a one to one ratio.
In order to profit from the sale of the time spread, the seller is looking basically for two things.
First is a decrease in implied volatility. As volatility decreases, the out-month option (which the seller is short) loses money faster than the near month option (which the seller is long) because of the higher vega in the out month option. This will cause the spread to contract or lose value. That will be profitable for the time spread seller.
Second, the stock can move. As stated before, a time spread is at its widest, most expensive point when it is at-the-money. A movement away from the strike in either direction decreases the value of the spread. So, as long as the stock moves in either direction away from the strike, the seller's position could be profitable provided that time decay does not outperform the stock movement.
Time, unfortunately, never works in favor of the time-spread seller. The passage of time hurts the seller because the nearer month option (which the seller is long) naturally decays at a faster rate than does the out-month option (which the seller is short). These differing decay rates cause the spread to expand and increase in value. That obviously produces a loss for the time spread seller. Time can neither be stopped nor turned back. It only moves forward which always hurts the time spread seller.
Increases in implied volatility are also detrimental to the potential profits of the time- spread seller. When implied volatility increases, the out month option (which the seller is short) increases in value faster than the near month option (which the seller is long) due to the out month option's higher vega. This creates an expansion in the spread and increases its value resulting in a negative for the spread seller.
The seller, in theory, has an unlimited loss potential. For the seller, the maximum loss potential is not so much determined by the stock price movement but by the movement in implied volatility. As the seller, you will be long the front month call and short the out- month call. As we know, the out month call will be more sensitive to movements in implied volatility due to a higher vega or volatility sensitivity component. If implied volatility increases then the seller's short, out month option will increase more in value than will the seller's long, front month option. This will cause the spread to widen or increase in value; that is negative for the seller.
The second risk is that the option the seller is long is going to expire approximately 30 days prior to the option the seller is short. If volatility does not decrease or the stock does not move away from the strike significantly before the seller's long option expires, he/she will be left short a naked or un-hedged option and a loss on the position. If the seller can wait out the position, the lost extrinsic value of the short option can be recaptured. As we know, this option too has a limited life and must shed its extrinsic value, no matter how much, by its expiration. The problem facing the seller is that the position is no longer hedged and the seller now faces unlimited risk.
Once the long option expires and the seller is left short a now naked call, stock price movement in the wrong direction is a substantial risk and under the circumstances described above, a big problem. While the seller can wait out an implied volatility movement that created an increase in extrinsic value, they probably will not be able to wait out a large, negative stock movement creating an increase in intrinsic value. In that case the seller must take action to prevent substantial losses once the front month expires. Attention to the implied volatility in the farther out option when the nearer month option expires can save the seller from a large loss.
Ron Ianieri is currently Chief Options Strategist at The Options University, an educational company that teaches investors how to make consistent profits using options while limiting risk. For more information please contact The Options University at http://www.optionsuniversity.com or 866-561-8227
5:44 AM | 0 Comments
Wall Street Rallied Once Again
Wall Street resumed its rally this week after new data showed the overall economy is holding up, but isn't so strong as to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates says Betonmarket's Michael Wright. The Dow Jones industrial average saw an increase of nearly 200 points on Wednesday.
Stocks turned around following two sessions of losses, after a report showed hiring in the U.S. private sector expanded at a faster pace in November. ADP Employer Services said 189,000 jobs were added during the month, an increase that bodes well for consumer spending.
Investors were also encouraged on Wednesday, after the department reported worker productivity advanced by an annual rate of 6.3 percent in the summer, the fastest pace in four years, while wage pressures eased.
Still, there is enough uncertainty in the economy to bolster the argument for lower rates. The financial sector is still struggling from months of credit problems, and the Institute for Supply Management reported on Wednesday, that service sector growth slowed in November.
Some investors are betting the Fed will go beyond the generally anticipated quarter percentage point cut, and lower rates by a half point. A mere quarter-point cut could bring some disappointment to Wall Street, but as long as the Fed reiterates an openness to lowering rates further in its accompanying economic assessment, the market could still move higher. The MPC led the way last week with a quarter point cut.
The market is currently pricing in a rate cut next week. Supporting the case for a cut is the fact that central banks globally seem to be open to the idea, a trend that would give the Fed even more room to move.
Investors also weighed a Commerce Department report that showed factory orders unexpectedly rose in October. However, that data was likely to be offset by the report from the Institute for Supply Management, showing growth in the service sector cooled somewhat in November.
All of this is positive news for both the SP500 and the US dollar, however it seems like the best value on trading is found in the longer term SP500 'no touch' options. These options compensate traders for correctly guessing a level, which isn't touched by the market during the duration of the trade.
After checking Betonmarkets.com the best value comes with a 'no touch' on the SP500 for 25 days using a no touch level 130 points below the current price.
This option pays 6% ROI. This means the S&P 500 can go up, stay where it is, or drop slightly and you still win.
- THE END -
Contact Details:
Name: Mike Wright
Tel: 448003762737
Email: editor@my.regentmarkets.com
Url: Betonmarkets.com & Betonmarkets.co.uk
Address:
Regent Markets (IOM) Limited
3rd Floor, 1-5 Church Street
Douglas, Isle of Man
IM1 2AG
Regent Markets is the world's leading fixed odds financial trading group. Through its main multi-award winning websites, BetOnMarkets.com and BetOnMarkets.co.uk, it has established itself as the leading global provider of a unique, powerful way to trade the world's major financial markets. The number, length and variety of trades available to our clients exists nowhere else in the world.
5:34 AM | 0 Comments
What Is Return On Investment (ROI)?
Return on investment is a performance measure that can be used to compare several investments. ROI is calculated as net income of an investment divided by the cost of the investment.
ROI = Net income / Investment cost
where
Net Income = Income from the investment - Investment cost
ROI is usually noted as percentage, meaning that 10% of gives us 10 cents per each dollar of investment. If you would like to have ROI as percentage then you should calculate it as:
ROI = (Net income / Investment cost ) x 100.
For example if Net income is 1,200$ and Investment cost is 10,000$, then ROI is 1,200/10,000 = 0.12 or stated as percentage ROI is 12%.
If ROI is negative then the investment should not be considered because the investment is a loss. If ROI is positive then investment is profitable. Higher ROI is better than lower ROI. A project with the highest ROI will have the highest profit rate.
Other measures than money can be used to measure the cost and the income. That is the reason that ROI is very flexible and can be manipulated. Therefore, it is necessary to know how the ROI is calculated, i.e. what are the costs and what are the income? For example, the Accounting ROI is equal to the net income divided by the total assets. ROI works just fine if income and outcome can be easily identified.
ROI can be also used with not so precise definition of income and outcome. One could consider customer satisfaction, accuracy, average shopping chart or something else. For example one could calculate ROI for Customer satisfaction (where CS is short for Customer Satisfaction) like this:
ROI = Change in customer satisfaction / Investment cost
where
Change in customer satisfaction = CS after investment - CS before investment.
What should you do with ROI? First of all, if you have only one investment ROI could only show if your investment is profitable (ROI > 0). If you have several investments and you consider terminating one, probably you should terminate the one with the smallest ROI. Also, if you have several investment opportunities, you should choose the one with the highest ROI. Of course you should consider other factors involved, such as risk, necessary minimum amount for investing, your portfolio...
Zoran is a freelance author focused on investing basics. You can read and subscribe to his blog at http://gtdinvest.blogspot.com
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Zoran_Maksimovic
6:14 AM | 0 Comments
Powerful Investment Strategies for 2008
Maverick Investors are always planning ahead, looking out for the next big opportunities coming down the pipe. The turn of the year is a particularly powerful time to take stock, and start making decisions about the direction to take in the New Year.
There's a phrase that I think about often, and particularly at this time of year -
"If you keep on doing what you're doing, then you'll keep on getting what you're getting"
This serves as a powerful reminder - if you don't like what you're getting, the only way you'll change that is by changing what you're doing! It seems obvious, but look around you, and see how many people clearly never think about this simple truth.
So, what powerful strategies do you, as a Maverick Investor, have to hand for 2008? Here, in no particular order, are my current Top Six. To make sure all tastes are covered, there are two from the property investment world, two from the online business world, and two from the stock markets.
These are just introductions to the concepts. In later articles, I'll go into each one in a lot more depth.
BMV Property Investing
BMV stands for Below Market Value. There is a niche in the property investing game in which investors never pay full market price for a house or apartment.
Now, there are lots of reasons why properties are made available for below market value prices, and there are many methods of tracking these bargain properties down. By far the richest source, though, is the motivated seller.
A motivated seller is one who is in some sort of difficulty, and needs to off-load their property quickly. They may be struggling with debt. They may be facing repossession or foreclosure (depending on which side of the Atlantic they're on!). They may be recently bereaved. You get the picture.
You can genuinely help these people by buying their properties at a significant discount and, at the same time, digging them out of whichever hole they find themselves in. It can be a very satisfying way to make a living in property.
Lease Options
Once you own a property, and assuming you want to keep it, rather than sell it on, then you need to make money from it, and you'd typically do this by renting it out to a tenant. The rent covers the mortgage, with perhaps a bit left over for repairs and so on, but it's rare, at least in the UK, for a landlord to make any significant monthly cashflow.
A solution to this is to utilise lease options, a technique also known as rent-to-buy, or rent-to-own.
Basically, you give your tenants the option to buy the property from you within a set time. In return, they pay you a deposit of 3% - 5% of the value of the property when they move in, plus they pay about 20% on top of the rent every month.
Your cashflow thereby goes from virtually non-existent to pretty amazing! Plus, you have tenants who pay on time and love you for helping them out! A true win-win!
Network Marketing
In the online business world, little is more powerful than network marketing.
Yes, it did get something of a bad name in the 80s and 90s. Huge network marketing companies like Amway have fantastic products, but you were always encouraged to make a long list of all your friends and family, and then go out and sell to them. Which is a very swift way of losing friends and family!
The Internet makes it possible - easy, even - to connect with many, many more people a lot faster (and we're NOT talking about spam here!). If you're offering a great product and tons of value, the power of the network does all the hard work for you.
Affiliate Marketing
So you want an online business, but you don't have a product to offer? Not a problem!
All you need to do is track down products offered by others - good products, of course, and preferably ones you use yourself - and become an affiliate. All this means is that you become a seller for the product owner and earn a commission on every sale.
Many online sales to your network of one good product can produce a very good passive income stream. Many sales on several good products can be even better.
If you want to start investigating this one right away, go and explore www.clickbank.com
Volatility Trading
The biggest myth in stock market trading is that some people can predict the direction of a market, or of an individual stock, with consistent accuracy.
That's not true!
How would you like to discover a way to trade which allows you to make regular and significant amounts of tax-free profits on large stock moves - regardless of whether that move is up or down?
This is perfectly feasible with volatility trading, and we'll tell you more in a future article.
Covered Calls
Did you know you can rent your shares out, in a very similar way to renting real estate?
Call options are a speculators dream, but they can be quite risky. However, if you are the option writer or seller, then what you're doing is selling options to the speculators, and effectively collecting from them a monthly rent for the shares you own.
This is a very low-risk activity that returns almost unbelievable yields. You can comfortably expect in the region of 3% to 6% a month using these strategies - and better yet, it will take you about 1-3 hours a month to run.
So, if you have $100,000 stock portfolio, or $100,000 to invest, this one strategy alone could bring you $3-6,000 a month - and your $100,000 will stay intact! Did your 'financial freedom figure' just go down a few notches?
Whether you're interested in stocks, real estate or online business, now is the time to decide which direction your wealth-creation activities will take now.
The next six articles in this series will cover each of the above strategies in depth. In the meantime, feel free to check out the resources available to you at www.maverick-investor.com
About the AuthorRob Best is a Maverick Investor of some 25 years, specialising in property (real estate) and stock options.
His mission is to combine his passions for writing and Maverick Investing to bring powerful below-the-radar investment techniques to all those who seek true financial freedom. Read More......
6:05 AM | 0 Comments