Discover The Danger Of Technical Analysis
By:Jason Ng
Let's cut to the chase...
The biggest and most critical danger of technical analysis is that, after a while, it starts to show you exactly what YOU WANT to see!
In quantitative studies, there is a phenomenon where your research starts showing you what you want to see instead of what is really happening and that is known as "Data Mining". Data Mining occurs most frequently when there is a huge benefit to you if the results are showing one way instead of another. This is the exact same phenomenon in technical analysis.
In technical analysis, charts start showing you what you want to see especially when you have made a mistake and needs the stock to go one way instead of another! Suddenly, the deeper you dig into the myriad of technical indicators, the more "evidence" you seem to find supporting your mistake, giving you the eerie confidence that your mistake is going to turn out just fine.
We all remember how that turned out, don't we?
Technical analysis is essentially a study of the various ways to interpret historical price and volume action in order to form an opinion of future direction. Because technical analysis methods have become so complex over the years with literally THOUSANDS of technical indicators that have been developed, the average amateur investor can always find ways to make a chart look the way they want it to and point towards a non-existent future direction!
Before anyone here thinks that I am against technical analysis, I am not. In fact, my main trading system, the Star Trading System is a technical analysis based option trading system that has made me money over and over again, year after year. So, what really is the problem? The problem is the misuse of technical analysis and the misuse of incompatible technical indicators! Until you really understand the formula and logic behind every technical indicator, the purpose for which each indicator has been developed for and what other confirming indicators works with each other, you will never be able to use technical analysis to form an educated opinion! You will continue to see only whatever you want to see. Some call it "Analysis Paralysis", I call it pure ignorance.
Sadly, it takes years of research and heaps of lost money to get technical analysis right and it will only become harder and harder to get right with ever more complex and new indicators being developed everyday. A lack of knowledge and lack of time to attain that knowledge has always been the bane of all amateur traders. That is why following a developed and proven trading system with a proven, proprietary mix of indicators is the best thing an amateur trader can do.
So, the next time you look at a technical analysis chart, remember, are you merely looking to prove what you already have in mind? Because if you are, then you are very likely to find all the evidences you need to support your own views.
About the Author:
Jason Ng is the Founder and Chief Option Strategist of Masters 'O' Equity Asset Management ( MastersoEquity.com ) and author of OptionTradingPedia.com .
3:18 AM | 1 Comments
HEALTHY CORPORATE FINANCING DEPENDS ON EMERGING STOCK MARKET
by James Kong
Business corporate of large sizes - airlines, shipping lines, heavy industries and mining etc. need huge capital towards formation and successful running. Governments the world over have a tendency to nationalize a majority of these businesses, keeping in mind the welfare and up gradation of the standard of living of their citizens. Apart from these Public Sector Undertakings, there are a number of private sector corporate companies to cover up the gap in manufacture, trade and commerce to fulfill the need of the people nationally and internationally.
Joint ventures between the Public and Private sector as also between Corporate Companies of two or more nations are very common in the economic field. All these ventures need capital outlays of immense sizes, running into trillions of appropriate currencies. Leaving alone the small fraction of individual ownerships, a vast majority of these corporate ventures are dependant upon contribution of money from the public at large. Mobilization of such enormous sizes of capital input is facilitated only by issue of shares, stocks and securities to be participated by public investment. The share market business of every country carried out in the trading floors of Stock Exchanges is the back bone of capital mobilization for corporate ventures of high magnitude.
Rules and regulations of corporate formations are being enacted by the Governments to regulate the trade practices, as also a fair and equitable distribution of wealth with no rooms for malpractices. Company Laws of every nation stipulate that, of course with minor differences here and there according to the age old customs and practices, mobilization of public money towards the objective of corporate formation should be done only in accordance with the procedures.
The first step for the formation of a business corporate is registration with the authorities by submission ,of the Memorandum and Articles of Association describing in detail the share capital and its proposed mobilization methods, apart from other particulars. The registered companies are allowed to issue shares for public subscription after listing them in the respective Stock Exchanges. These Initial Public Offers (IPO) are being scrutinized by the public with relevance to the strengths and weaknesses of the proposed venture. It is here the Share Market dealings play a vital role in the evaluation of the issue. Such of those corporate companies that have already established a goodwill among the public opinion through their performance in earlier years, find it very easy to get their shares oversubscribed than the anticipated quantum. Observers and economists watching the emerging stock market movements guide the investors in this regard.
Secondly Corporate business houses whose shares are performing well in emerging stock markets over the years can capitalize their goodwill into mobilization of huge sums of money by securities, debentures and bonds of public debt for their expansion and diversification activities.
Thirdly, based upon the performance of the shares of companies in the same sectors, like steel, cement, building materials, consumer products and other heavy industries like ship building, mining, airways etc. in the emerging stock markets, new ventures in these sectors also get benefited in easy mobilization of capital from the public. Thus emerging stock markets and movements of share prices in "bullish" or "bearish" trends have a strong bearing on healthy corporate financing in all European, Asian and Southeast Asian countries.
About the Author
Jame Kong at Bullish Site Resource for Emerging Stock Market
6:23 AM | 0 Comments
Window Dessing on Mutual Funds
by: Thomas Kapios
"Window Dressing" Funds In Order to Make them Appear More Valuable
Many banks use the "window dressing" method when they try to sell mutual funds. This is a technique that is often used in order to make something appear much better than it actually is.
An Example
For example, let's say we have stock A and stock B; stock A increased in value while stock B declined. Now suppose the Mutual fund proportionally has a lot of stock B, however. They then sell this stock B and buy more of stock A. This will make people think that the fund is doing really well because stock A goes up. So people fall for this method and end up purchasing a fund that is weak.
In my opinion the best choice:
In my opinion, the best choice that one can make is to buy an exchange traded fund with low expense ratio and no load. (No load means that there is no fee associated with it, it provides a better choice than a high-fee load).
Caution
Allways be careful when you buy a fund in a bank. Always have in mind that you are not required to buy the fund on the spot. The best method is to ask for a prospectus. Go home and review the prospectus, and when everything seems to be in order, you can buy it.
Mutual funds information and tutorial; please take a look if your intrested
source:searchwarp.com Read More......
5:07 AM | 0 Comments
Self Storage: New Opportunity for Baby Boomers
By:Dean Brown
The turn of the century brought with it another turn: that of the baby boomer generation into retirees. However, retired boomers aren't spending their free time puttering around the country in RVs or taking in 18 holes on the golf course. Rather, they're starting their own businesses.
A 2006 study by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation showed that people between the ages of 55 and 64 were the ones most likely to start up a new business.
Why, after working for 30 or 40 years, would people want to suddenly start working more? According to a recent article in U.S. News & World Report, it's possible that the baby boomers are having a sort of existential crisis. After so many years spent working for other people, they want to work for themselves. And, unlike many young bucks, they actually have the money and experience to do it.
To many of these aspiring entrepreneurs, I offer a humble suggestion: why not consider a self storage building for a post-retirement career? Self-storage steel buildings is one of the few small business investments that's relatively low-risk, high-reward. Here's why:
1) You've got a good chance of success. Steel Self storage has about an 8 percent failure rate, as opposed to other commercial real estate ventures, which have a failure rate between 53 and 63 percent. That's nearly six times as high.
2) You can pay your loan off quickly. On average, self storage steel buildings have about 80 percent occupancy. If that's the case, then even if you're paying off your land, materials, construction, and everything, you can usually get your entire loan paid back in about six years.
3) You don't have to hire the Seventh Fleet to run it. You'll be managing yourself and maybe one or two other people for the day-to-day upkeep of your self storage business. After years of working in giant buildings amongst thousands of other people, who doesn't want that kind of low maintenance?
4) You'll be entering a growing industry with demonstrated demand. Self storage has been the fastest-growing sector of the commercial real estate industry for the past 30 years. In 2006, gross revenues for primary self storage facilities were $22.6 billion - an average of $441,208 per facility.
Many boomers built a huge network of contacts over their years in the corporate world, which they can use in the post-retirement world to enhance their own businesses. And after spending so many years in the corporate world, many are ready for a chance to be their own boss while doing something that they love.
Growing right along with the number of baby boomer entrepreneurs is the self storage industry. It's been the fastest-growing sector of the United States commercial real estate industry for the past 30 years. In 2006, gross revenues for primary self storage facilities were $22.6 billion - an average of $441,208 per facility.
Any new business is risky, and those risks have to be accounted for before taking the plunge into entrepreneurship. However, self storage steel buildings have a better track record than other start-up commercial ventures.
According to an in-depth study by National Development Services Inc. of the performance of multi-family, office, retail and self storage developments in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Colorado and Louisiana, self storage steel buildings have a failure rate of about 8 percent, while other real estate ventures have a failure rate nearly six times that amount.
No business is a guarantee by any means, but with a failure rate of only 8 percent, self storage buildings are more secure than many other small business investments.
It's not a huge initial investment
Compared to other new businesses, you're also looking at a smaller initial investment with self storage steel buildings. If you consider an 80 percent occupancy rate, which is about average, then even including the purchase of the land, you could still have your loan paid off in about six years. That's considerably less than other small businesses.
Plus, self storage buildings don't require a huge staff to maintain upkeep. Most likely you'll just be managing yourself and a couple of other people. That way, the hiring process won't be a headache.
Self storage is not only a stable industry, but a steadily growing one, with demonstrated demand. Businesses require storage for surplus office supplies or equipment while moving. College students need storage when they go home for the summer. Military personnel need storage for their belongings while they're overseas. The possibilities are absolutely endless.
With relatively low risk and initial investments, it's one of the best "retirement careers" available for boomers who've been bitten by the entrepreneurial bug.About Author
I am the President of American Steel Buildings, Inc. in Tulsa, Oklahoma. We specialize in steel self-storage buildings. Our success is dependent on taking care of our customers. Our site is www.gosteelgo.com
Read More......4:54 AM | 0 Comments
