Avoid Market Timing By Using DCA And DVA
Dollar cost averaging (DCA) is an investing technique intended to reduce exposure to risk associated with making a single large purchase. According to this technique, shares of stock are purchased in a specific amount on a specified periodic basis (often monthly), regardless of current performance. The theory is that this will lead to greater returns overall, since smaller numbers of shares will be bought when the cost is high, while larger number of shares will be bought while the cost is low.
An example of DCA would be as follows: If I want to buy 1,200 shares of IBM stock using DCA, then I might decide to purchase 400 shares of IBM per month over the course of the next three months. Hypothetically, during month one, the price of IBM may be $105 per share, and then it might drop to $95 per share during month two, and then rise to $100 during month three. If I bought all 1,200 shares during month one, I would have cost me $105 per share. But, by spreading the purchase over a three month period, I managed to buy IBM at an average price of $100 per share.
The primary drawback of using DCA is that you may not be maximizing your overall return. If there is an indication that a certain stock is currently undervalued and might shoot up in price, you would actually make less money using DCA than if you had bought all the shares in the beginning before the price skyrocketed. So, it is not always a winning strategy to spread your purchases over a period of time.
Value averaging, also known as dollar value averaging (DVA), is a technique of adding to an investment portfolio to provide greater return than similar methods such as dollar cost averaging and random investment. With the method, investors contribute to their portfolios in such a way that the portfolio balance increases by a set amount, regardless of market fluctuations. As a result, in periods of market declines, the investor contributes more money, while in periods of market climbs, the investor contributes less.
Here is an example of DVA: I want to invest in Yahoo using DVA. For the sake of argument, we will say that Yahoo is currently $10 per share. I determine that the value of the amount I am going to invest over the course of 1 year will rise, on average, $1,000 each quarter as I make additional investments. If I use DVA, I invest $1,000 to start.
If, at the end of the first quarter, the share price has risen to $15 per share, that means that the value of my investment is now $1,500, which means I will only have to invest $500 at the start of the second quarter in order to bring the total amount of my investment for the first and second quarter to $2,000. So, I am investing less as the stock price increases.
Dollar value averaging usually works better than cost averaging because value averaging results in less money being invested as the stock price goes up, whereas with cost averaging you continue to invest the same number of dollars regardless of the share price. But, neither of these strategies are necessarily full-proof. Make sure you know something about the company you are going to invest in before you go forward.
Jim Pretin is the owner of http://www.forms4free.com, a service that helps programmers make an HTML form
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Options Trading: The Protective Put Strategy In Different Scenarios
As previously stated, when we buy a stock, three potential outcomes exist. The stock can go up, go down, or remain stagnant. Let's hypothesize results across these three scenarios. Say you buy the stock for $31.00 and buy the front month 30 put for $1.00.
In the 'up' scenario, let's assume the stock price is $31.50 at expiration. The results are that you have a $.50 gain from capital appreciation and a $1.00 loss from the purchase of the put which combined gives us a $.50 overall loss.
It is important to realize that the up scenario will only produce a positive return if the stock gain is greater than the amount paid for the put. That being the case, you calculate the breakeven point for the protective put strategy by adding the purchase price of the stock to the price of the put.
In the 'up' scenario, add the stock price $31.00 plus the option price $1.00 and you get a breakeven of $32.00. So, until the stock reaches $32.00, the position will not produce a positive return. Above $32.00 the position will gain the amount equal to the stock price minus the premium paid for the option..
In the 'stagnant' scenario, the position will produce a loss. Since the stock hasn't moved, there will be no capital gain or loss and with the stock at $31.00 at expiration, the puts are worthless. The position lost $1.00, the amount you paid for the puts.
In the 'down' scenario, the position will again produce a loss. If the stock price were to trade down $1.00 to $30.00, then you would have a $1.00 capital loss.
With the stock at $30.00, the 30 puts will be worthless, thus you incur a $1.00 loss because that is what you paid for them. Your total loss will be $2.00.
However, in the 'down' scenario, the protective put will set a cap on your losses. Let's see how that works. We'll set the stock price down to $28.00. Since you purchased the stock at $31.00, there will be a capital loss of $3.00.
The puts, however, are now in the money with the stock below $30.00. With the stock at $28.00, the 30 puts are worth $2.00. You paid $1.00 for them so you have a $1.00 profit in the puts.
Combine the put profit ($1.00) with the capital loss (-$3.00) and you have an overall loss of $2.00. The $2.00 loss is the maximum amount you can lose regardless of how low the stock declines, even if it goes as low as zero. This is what is meant by maximum protection.
In every protective put position it is possible to calculate your anticipated maximum loss. Use the formula: (stock price minus strike price) minus the option's price equals total maximum loss.
Maximum Loss = (Stock Price - Strike Price) - Option Price
For example, suppose you paid $30.00 for your stock. You bought the front month 27.5 put for $1.00. Next, assume the stock closes at $27.50 on expiration day.
Your maximum loss calculation would be:
($30.00 - $ 27.50) - $1.00 = $3.50
$30.00 (stock price) minus 27.5 (strike price) equals a $2.50 capital loss. Do not forget that with the stock at $27.50, the 27.5 puts will be worthless.
Add the capital loss ($2.50) plus the option loss ($1.00). The total is $3.50 which is your maximum possible loss in that position. This formula will work every time.
Looking at the three hypothesized scenarios, we find that only one scenario, the 'up' scenario, can produce a positive return and that's only when the stock increases more than the amount you paid for the puts.
The other two scenarios produced losses. If the stock is stagnant, you lose the amount you paid for the put. If the stock goes down, you lose again- but the loss is limited. It is the limiting of loss that makes the protective put an attractive and useful strategy.
Ron Ianieri is currently Chief Options Strategist at The Options University, an educational company that teaches investors how to make consistent profits using options while limiting risk. For more information please contact The Options University at http://www.optionsuniversity.com or 866-561-8227
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