All about investment

As previously stated, when we buy a stock, three potential outcomes exist. The stock can go up, go down, or remain stagnant. Let's hypothesize results across these three scenarios. Say you buy the stock for $31.00 and buy the front month 30 put for $1.00.

In the 'up' scenario, let's assume the stock price is $31.50 at expiration. The results are that you have a $.50 gain from capital appreciation and a $1.00 loss from the purchase of the put which combined gives us a $.50 overall loss.

It is important to realize that the up scenario will only produce a positive return if the stock gain is greater than the amount paid for the put. That being the case, you calculate the breakeven point for the protective put strategy by adding the purchase price of the stock to the price of the put.

In the 'up' scenario, add the stock price $31.00 plus the option price $1.00 and you get a breakeven of $32.00. So, until the stock reaches $32.00, the position will not produce a positive return. Above $32.00 the position will gain the amount equal to the stock price minus the premium paid for the option..

In the 'stagnant' scenario, the position will produce a loss. Since the stock hasn't moved, there will be no capital gain or loss and with the stock at $31.00 at expiration, the puts are worthless. The position lost $1.00, the amount you paid for the puts.

In the 'down' scenario, the position will again produce a loss. If the stock price were to trade down $1.00 to $30.00, then you would have a $1.00 capital loss.

With the stock at $30.00, the 30 puts will be worthless, thus you incur a $1.00 loss because that is what you paid for them. Your total loss will be $2.00.

However, in the 'down' scenario, the protective put will set a cap on your losses. Let's see how that works. We'll set the stock price down to $28.00. Since you purchased the stock at $31.00, there will be a capital loss of $3.00.

The puts, however, are now in the money with the stock below $30.00. With the stock at $28.00, the 30 puts are worth $2.00. You paid $1.00 for them so you have a $1.00 profit in the puts.

Combine the put profit ($1.00) with the capital loss (-$3.00) and you have an overall loss of $2.00. The $2.00 loss is the maximum amount you can lose regardless of how low the stock declines, even if it goes as low as zero. This is what is meant by maximum protection.

In every protective put position it is possible to calculate your anticipated maximum loss. Use the formula: (stock price minus strike price) minus the option's price equals total maximum loss.

Maximum Loss = (Stock Price - Strike Price) - Option Price

For example, suppose you paid $30.00 for your stock. You bought the front month 27.5 put for $1.00. Next, assume the stock closes at $27.50 on expiration day.

Your maximum loss calculation would be:

($30.00 - $ 27.50) - $1.00 = $3.50

$30.00 (stock price) minus 27.5 (strike price) equals a $2.50 capital loss. Do not forget that with the stock at $27.50, the 27.5 puts will be worthless.

Add the capital loss ($2.50) plus the option loss ($1.00). The total is $3.50 which is your maximum possible loss in that position. This formula will work every time.

Looking at the three hypothesized scenarios, we find that only one scenario, the 'up' scenario, can produce a positive return and that's only when the stock increases more than the amount you paid for the puts.

The other two scenarios produced losses. If the stock is stagnant, you lose the amount you paid for the put. If the stock goes down, you lose again- but the loss is limited. It is the limiting of loss that makes the protective put an attractive and useful strategy.

We are constantly refraining the three reasons why market structure matters to investor relations practitioners right answers to questions, right places for IR time and effort, right IR measurements. Now, lets apply options expirations to these actions.

Last week marked the expiration of monthly options. We noticed that overall market structure changed in advance on Monday October 15. We also saw how European, Asian and American markets behaved like pistons, going up and down in small increments. Market gurus would have us believe these swings are indications of fear and greed tied to credit or economic concerns. Whether investors are engaged in continual bipolar reaction or not, we dont think this explanation has much merit.

Why does this matter to IR efforts? Because its important to understand the thinking of your shareholders if youre to accurately answer questions, effectively expend effort and correctly measure results. Poring over the data, heres what we think: Regulation National Market System (Reg NMS) in the U.S. markets has moved the search for arbitrage beyond individual market centers onto the global stage (its not fully possible yet, but the data tell us its getting easier). This comes as little surprise. But the degree to which volume distributes among big American broker-dealers, and big European broker-dealers and Asian structured-products specialists is quite remarkable.

And no matter what traders may say, options expirations are like Santa Ana winds for equity values these days. Derivatives are very liquid and constantly in motion. Still, swings of a percent or two each day played out over a yearthe opportunity for gains and losses is both alluring to investors and difficult to measure. Its not 5-10% at a whack, but little pieces done fast and continuously. These actions impact availability of liquidity to fundamental investors, and the transactional nature of equity markets reshuffles sellside priorities.

If you want to be an investor relations star these days, you need to know this stuff. In conclusion, lets go back to the three hooks.

Did your stock react to news or events or to a derivatives imbalance? This goes to correct answers.

Which sellside shops moved your stock price, and when? That addresses how and where, and even when, you spend your IR time.

How did money not volume respond to your calls and one-on-ones? This goes to measuring your IR activities.

The truth isnt in market structure alone, but if you dont know yours, you are taking a big chance with all three of the hooks.

About Athour

Tim Quast is a fifteen-year Investor Relations veteran and founder and managing director of ModernIR.com, which parses and categorizes over a half-billion shares per week with its trading intelligence system, Equity Analysis. For more information please visit: modernir.com.